Day 05/08/2012 - 3:03 p.m.
Europe has lived a key week for the future of the euro. The whole world held its breath last Thursday to hear the recipes the European Central Bank President (ECB), Mario Draghi, had promised to put in place to save the euro. But in the end, bittersweet. Said act, that "the euro is irreversible," but leaves the governments of Spain and Italy the responsibility to take the first step. The Minister of Economy and Competitiveness, Luis de Guindos, told ABC this week has been key to the future of Spain and the euro , what is the position of the Government of Mariano Rajoy . A position that is defined in one word: caution. The Executive will study very well the conditions before a request for assistance.
The president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has disappointed.Leave the door open for the purchase of debt but concedes a roof of governments in trouble. Now what? Spain Will ask for help?
-The European Central Bank President has sent two very clear signals.First, differences in financing costs between euro countries are not acceptable and that the high risk premiums in some countries are an obstacle to the proper transmission of monetary policy. And second, he is determined to intervene in the debt market in ways that will materialize in the coming weeks. Well, what is needed now is to wait and see how these formulas are realized. We have time before and we will act with caution.
'But the risk premiums of Spain and Italy are very high. And how long it can hold at these levels is small. To ask for a European rescue fund to buy our debt is the only way out of this?
-The risk premiums in Spain and Italy are responsible, in part, to concerns about the euro. So the solution is European. The European Council last June 29 moved in this direction with the agreements on banking supervision only, the fiscal pact and the promotion of economic growth. The move Thursday by the ECB is also part of the solution in this regard. The IMF estimates that 200 basis point risk premium reflects the uncertainties on the euro and are an additional cost of 12,000 million euros in next two years. In other words, if all the European machine is started and cleared the doubts about the euro, we will save those 12,000 million in interest on the debt. Are 1.2 percent of GDP deficit purposes, an important part of the adjustment in income and expenses that we had to do to comply with the path committed to Brussels. In addition, a significant reduction in the risk premium would also facilitate private sector financing.
'But Germany seems hellbent on this will not happen if Spain and Italy do not ask for help before. In addition, the permanent rescue fund may not act until the German Constitutional Court give the go-ahead next September. Could aid be requested at the time ?
-Like I said, we will learn the details and then we can have a precise timetable. We have time and can wait until these details are cleared. The Treasury is funding markets relatively well in the circumstances. We covered over 70% of gross financing requirements this year and the emission rate is still below what we had last December. Another issue is that a risk premium at current levels it is not acceptable or sustainable. It may be that some of the savings we get with the settings you have made, with the efforts that we ask the citizens, lost in the payment of debt interest. Against this fight and I'm sure they are laying the groundwork to return to rationality in the markets.
-The request for aid to Europe would be signing another MOU with new conditions.Will they have to endure more sacrifices Spanish citizens?
We do not know how it will implement the procedure. In any case, the substantial part of the adjustment is made. No further action because we believe that we have adopted will be sufficient to meet the deficit reduction path that we have committed to Brussels. The director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde said the other day that Spain was already doing everything necessary, all reforms accurate. In many areas, from the European Commission to the ECB itself, we recognize those efforts. That is, we do our part and no doubt that we will continue doing. That this commitment is to put it on paper or not, is not important in my opinion. It is essential that your partners do not doubt your behavior and that Spain has given ample evidence that deserves that trust.
-A Germany is interested in the situation of tension experienced by the euro because it finances almost free. But can long maintain this situation without breaking the euro?
-It is clear that this is a malfunction of the market and when this happens, institutions have to intervene. It is what, after all, has said the ECB on Thursday. It has set a goal and now we have to say how to get there. And that goal is ensuring that the euro will continue as the single currency, which is an irreversible project.
-The German reluctance argument is always the same. If the risk premium is relaxed, countries will not do their homework. With the show that we have this week, in what has seemed a regional rebellion, do not you are giving reasons to be wary of Spain?
'I have this perception of Germany. From my meetings with his finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, if I conclude that highly value the efforts being made by the Spanish society and its government to overcome the current problems. We have seven months in government and have not stopped to take action. Since the consolidation of the financial sector to the labor reform and fiscal consolidation. The autonomous communities as part of the Spanish, are in the same boat and are all aware that there is no way that reducing the deficit and debt. Apart from the tensions that may arise at any given time, know that the central government is helping them. But they also know that, above all, have to help themselves.
-The deficit in the first half of the year are not going very well. Will it be possible to meet the objectives with measures in place?
-The implementation of the budget, as you know, the Ministry of Finance. The measures, in effect, were adopted to ensure compliance with the deficit targets. No doubt we are in a context of economic recession and that this makes it difficult to balance the books. But I think with what has been done so far, as stated in the 2013-2014 program just adopted, will be sufficient to meet our commitments.
-Citizens are demanding many sacrifices, but we still see many excesses in the administration. There are still regional television, many companies and organizations ... You really can not speed up cutting these expenses? Can not lose weight the administration?
He can and must. But keep in mind that all public spending only 20% is managed by the central government. The remainder is the Social Security, communities and municipalities. Sure you can produce savings in the structure of the central state. For example, we announced a privatization plan and measures to optimize public housing estate. The share of communities, we agreed objectives and then are their governments and parliaments that decide how they get them. But yes, I think we should use all the room we have for example to a society like Spanish with many years of crisis behind him and is entitled to their leaders at all levels, guided by the austerity act.
-The Italian president, Mario Monti, a few days ago claimed that "already saw the light at the end of the tunnel." True, it was before he spoke Mario Draghi. Do you see that light as well or still some way to go?
I've always said that I will not create false expectations or talk of shoots or anything like that.But what I have clear is that, as in previous years sowed the seeds of the crisis we suffer today, today we are laying the groundwork for future retrieval. We have modernized the labor market so that adjustments in the labor market are not made primarily through layoffs. We highly channeled and cleaning up the financial sector to 100,000 million credit line provided to us by the European partners, on very favorable terms. And we have taken steps to ensure that we meet the path of deficit reduction agreed. The objectives that are good in themselves, for the Spanish economy as it has great growth potential. Our foreign trade, both exports and tourism, is behaving with great momentum even though we are in a recessionary environment. Spain registers and trade surplus with France, Italy and Austria, three of the most competitive economies in the world, and Germany are already close to equilibrium. We have a dynamic business network and a workforce that is the best prepared of history in Spain. These are our levers for a better future I hope to see relatively soon.