Lucky or Good?: 2013

Friday, August 23, 2013

2013-08-23 Events

2013-08-23 Events

WHAT TO WATCH:
* Nasdaq says cause of connectivity issue has been addressed
* Nasdaq shuts trading for 3 hours after computer errors
* SEC’s White vows tech safeguards after Nasdaq failure
* JPMorgan said to face London Whale fines as soon as next mo.
* CFTC said near releasing high-speed trading regulation plans
* Amgen said to push for lower Onyx price amid drug-data dispute
* Koch Industries backs away from bid for Tribune’s newspapers
* Moody’s mulls downgrade of big banks as U.S. support wanes
* Mitsubishi aircraft gets U.S. airlines’ backing amid delays
* AMR, US Airways want trial for U.S. antitrust suit in Nov.
* Southwest blind spot eroding U.S. bid to bar AMR-US Airways
* Alibaba said to ask HKEx to allow partners to nominate board
* Wells Fargo eyes 20% ann. growth in Asia fund-services clients
* ADM says Graincorp offer extended to Nov 16 from Aug 31
* Richmond says bondholders’ suit over eminent domain too early
* Baidu buys 59% stake in Renren website for $160m
* Amazon said to have tested wireless network in California
* U.K. economy grows a more-than-estimated 0.7% as exports rise
EQUITY PREVIEW:
* Aeropostale (ARO): Sees 3Q adj. loss vs est. profit
* Autodesk (ADSK): 3Q adj. EPS, rev. views trail ests; 2Q beat
* Expedia (EXPE): Expedia, Travelocity enter strategic marketing agreement
* Lions Gate (LGF): U.S. box office open of “You’re Next”
* Marvell (MRVL): Sees 3Q rev. above est.
* Net 1 Ueps Tech (UEPS): EPS beats 2 ests.
* New York & Co (NWY): 2Q loss per shr 4c, est. loss 3c
* Nordson (NDSN): 4Q view below ests.
* Pandora (P): 3Q adj. EPS view misses; raises yr view
* Retailmenot (SALE): 2Q rev. beat est.
* Ross (ROST): Boosts yr EPS view; 2Q EPS, rev. top ests.
EARNINGS (all times ET, times are approximate):
* Hibbett Sports (HIBB) 6:30am, $0.38
* Foot Locker (FL) 7am, $0.47
* Ann Inc (ANN) 7:30am, $0.65
Obama to Act ’Very Deliberately’ on Syria Chemical Arms: Aide

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- President Obama has told intelligence services to gather “facts and evidence” to determine if chemical arms were used by regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, White House spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan says in statement.
* “Once we ascertain the facts, the President will make an informed decision about how to respond. We have a range of options available, and we are going to act very deliberately”
* NOTE: Obama said in interview broadcast today on CNN reports of chemical weapons use by Syria “troublesome”
UPGRADES:
* Autodesk (ADSK) to buy: B. Riley
* Centurylink (CTL) to neutral: Nomura
* Children’s Place (PLCE) to buy: Topeka
  * FMC Technologies (FTI) to buy: Societe Generale
* Exlservice (EXLS) to outperform: Baird
* First Solar (FSLR) to market perform: Raymond James
* Kirkland’s (KIRK) to outperform: Wedbush
* Oneok Partners (OKS) to buy: BofA Merrill
* Simon Property (SPG) to outperform: BMO
* SunEdison (SUNE) to buy: Needham
* Trina Solar (TSL) to market perform: Raymond James
  * VMWare (VMW) to buy: Jefferies
* Williams Partners (WPZ) to buy: BofA Merrill

DOWNGRADES:
* Abercrombie (ANF) to neutral: Robert Baird
* Aeropostale (ARO) to underperform: BofA Merrill
* Aeropostale (ARO) to hold: Topeka
  * Arch Coal (ACI) to hold: Deutsche Bank
* Brookfield Asset (BAM) to market perform: Wells Fargo
* Dendreon (DNDN) to sell: Deutsche Bank
* DFC Global (DLLR) to market perform: William Blair
* DFC Global (DLLR) to market perform: JMP
* Dick’s Sporting (DKS) to market perform: Oppenheimer
* Edwards Group (EVAC) to sector perform: RBC
  * General Growth (GGP) to market perform: BMO
* Guess? (GES) to neutral: Piper
* Jiayuan.com (DATE) to perform: Oppenheimer
* Pandora Media (P) to market perform: Rayond James
* Pandora Media (P) to hold: Stifel
* Staples (SPLS) to neutral: Credit Suisse
* TC Pipelines (TCP) to underperform: BofA Merrill

INITIATIONS:
* Apricus Biosciences (APRI) hold: Cantor, P $2
* Bancorpsouth (BXS) outperform: RBC, PT $23
* Hancock Holding (HBHC) sector perform: RBC, PT $35

Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes

Arvind Krishnamurthy (Northwestern) and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (UC Berkeley) wrote a paper which scrutinized the Fed's support of QE. The authors believe that the Fed's participation in the mortgage market (via purchases of MBS) had a greater impact on the private economy than buying government securities, the traditional method in which the Fed influences rates.

It may be a tell tale sign that most of FOMC members that have taken part in the decision making process for QE will be leaving the Fed over the next year or so. There has been great debate not only on who will be the next head at the Federal Reserve (Yellen or Summers), but also whether or not Bernanke is leaving by his own accord. In any event, I don't view a change in leadership at the Fed as a positive development at this point in the cycle. If Bernanke is being forced out, you wonder if its because of his public critique of the government's inability to develop expansionary policies. If Bernanke is quitting, one couldn't help but ponder if its because he doesn't want to be front and center in another crisis. Especially if it's one that he helped create through unorthodox monetary policies.

Despite working through narrower channels, the Fed’s buying of mortgage-backed securities in QE3 has been more effective at boosting the economy through its effect on mortgage rates, according to the paper.

“The Fed’s cessation of MBS purchases or sale of MBS are likely to be more economically important for the private sector than a sale of Treasury bonds, which by itself will affect mainly government borrowing costs,” according to the paper. “There is little evidence for the operation of a broad channel through which large-scale asset purchases lower the yield on all long-term bonds.”

Via Bloomberg

Thursday, August 22, 2013

2013-08-22 Events

MAJOR STORY:
* Nasdaq Reopens After Three Hour Halt From Computer Error
* Nasdaq to Let Trades Executed 12:14:03pm-12:23:31pm Stand
* Exchanges to Bust Trades in Nasdaq-Listed Stocks in 3-Hr Window
TOP NEWS:
* Initial jobless claims 336k vs est. 330k; prior week revised to 323k from 320k; 4-wk moving avg. 330.5k
* 4-wk avg. at lowest since Nov. 2007
* J.C. Penney adopts 1-yr shareholder rights plan
* June FHFA House Price Index up 0.7% M/m vs est. up 0.6%; May revised to up 0.8% from up 0.7%
* U.S. Leading Indicators rose 0.6% in July, est. 0.5%
* Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort index fell to -28.8 vs -26.6 W/w
* 30-yr fixed mortgage rate 4.58% vs 4.40% W/w: Freddie Mac
* 15-yr fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.60% for week
AM EARNS:
* Hormel Foods (HRL) 6am, $0.45
* Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6am, $(1.07)
* Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 6:30am, $0.29 - Preview
* Children’s Place (PLCE) 6:30am, $(0.53)
* Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.48
* Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.52
* Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:29am, $0.57
* Ross Stores (ROST) 8:25am, $0.93
* GameStop (GME) 8:30am, $0.04
* Toro (TTC) 8:30am, $0.59
PM EARNS:
* Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.64
* Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.42
* Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01pm, $(0.28)
* Micros Systems (MCRS) 4:02pm, $0.62
* Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $0.02 - Preview
* Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:03pm, $0.19
* Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.11
* Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:05pm, $0.17
* Solera Holdings (SLH) 4:07pm, $0.66
* Nordson (NDSN) 4:30pm, $1.05
CONFERENCES/CORPORATE EVENTS:
* Citi One-on-One Midstream/Infrastructure Conf.: EROC, GEL, LGCY, NS, NSH, OILT
* Raymond James Bank Conf.: BBCN, BXS, FFIN, FMBI, HOMB, NPBC, NYCB, OZRK, PVTB, SCBT, TRMK, WTFC, ZION
* Annual meeting: MDT, IPL-U CN
UPGRADES:
* Brown Shoe (BWS) to positive: Susquehanna
* Canadian Pacific (CP) to outperform: Credit Suisse
* Home Depot (HD) to hold: Landesbank
* Exelis (XLS) to outperform: RBC
* Marathon Oil (MRO) to outperform: Raymond James
* Microsoft (MSFT) to buy: Nomura
* Precision Castparts (PCP) to outperform: Wells Fargo

DOWNGRADES:
* Emerge Energy (EMES) to neutral: Baird
* H.B. Fuller (FUL) to underperform: Longbow
* NII Holdings (NIHD) to underweight: Morgan Stanley
* Target (TGT) to neutral: Baird
* Target (TGT) to underperform: William Blair
* Target (TGT) to buy: ISI
* Target (TGT) to neutral: Janney
* Vanguard Health (VHS) to sector perform: RBC

INITIATIONS:
* Biocryst Pharma (BCRX) outperform: Wells Fargo
* Cimarex (XEC) neutral: Citi, PT $81
* Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) outperform: Stonecap
* Invensense (INVN) buy: Needham, PT $20
* Regeneron (REGN) outperform: Oppenheimer, PT $300
* SM Energy (SM) neutral: Citi, PT $76
* Tesla (TSLA) hold: Stifel
* Vertex Pharma (VRTX) outperform: Oppenheimer, PT $105
* Zynga (ZNGA) hold: Benchmark, PT $2.98

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Previewing Jackson Hole

The big news this year at Jackson Hole was known three months ago. It's not going to be about what is said at the Fed's annual symposium, but rather who will not be attending. Fed Chairman Bernanke announced a while ago he had a "scheduling conflict" and wouldn't be attending the event. Besides Bernanke, the head of the ECB and BOE are also not attending this year's meeting.

Fed Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts its annual symposium.

Panel moderators include former Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer on Aug. 23 and Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen on Aug 24.

Speakers during the three-day event include International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Banco Central do Brasil Governor Alexandre Tombini and Banco de Mexico Governor Agustin Carstens. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose term ends in January, is
not attending the conference. Speaker times to be announced on Aug 22. In Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Through Aug 24

Via Bloomberg

2013-08-21 Events

EARNINGS (all times ET, times are approximate):
* Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.79 - Preview
* Staples (SPLS) 6am, $0.18
* JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.20
* Energy XXI Bermuda (EXXI) 7am, $0.47
* Sears Canada (SCC CN) 7am, C$0.23
* Target (TGT) 7:30am, $0.95 - Preview
* Madison Square Garden (MSG) 7:30am, $0.32
* American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.10
* Eaton Vance (EV) 9am, $0.54
* PetSmart (PETM) Bef-mkt, $0.86
* Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) 4pm, $0.62
* Prospect Capital (PSEC) 4:03pm, $0.30
* Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 4:04pm, $0.86 - Preview
* Synopsys (SNPS) 4:05pm, $0.54
* L Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $0.60
* Semtech (SMTC) 4:03pm, $0.51
* AFC Enterprises (AFCE) 5pm, $0.31
ECONOMY:
* 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 16 (prior -4.7%)
* 10am: Existing Home Sales, July, est. 5.15m (prior 5.08m)
* 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
* 2pm: Release of FOMC minutes from July 30-31 meeting
CONFERENCES:
* Citi One on One Midstream/Infrastructure Conf.: EPD, EROC,
GEL, KMP, MPC, NS, NSH, OKS, QRE, TLLP, XTEX
* CRM Evolution Conf.: DELL, T
* Knight Capital Midwest Industrials Conf.: TEX
* Morgan Stanley Semiconductor & Semi-Cap Equipment Corp.
Access Day: MU, SLAB
UPGRADES:
* Garmin (GRMN) to neutral: Goldman
* Glaxo (GSK) to outperform: Cowen
* National Retail (NNN) to outperform: FBR
* Nasdaq (NDAQ) to strong buy: Raymond James
* Questcor Pharma (QCOR) to buy: BofA Merrill
* Royal Caribbean (RCL) to overweight: Morgan Stanley
* Trina Solar (TSL) to outperform: Cowen
* Xueda Education (XUE) to neutral: Goldman

DOWNGRADES:
* Agrium (AGU) to neutral: HSBC
* Caterpillar (CAT) to neutral: Daiwa
* Chesapeake Energy (CHK) to neutral: Susquehanna
* Harmony Gold (HMY) to sell: UBS
* Mosaic (MOS) to underweight: HSBC
* Potash (POT) to underweight: HSBC
* Tupperware (TUP) to market perform: BMO
* Velti (VELT) to underperform: RBC

INITIATIONS:
* First Busey (BUSE) market perform: FBR, PT $5.50
* Investors Bancorp (ISBC) hold: Deutsche Bank, PT $24
* Navistar (NAV) neutral: Susquehanna, PT $31
* Paccar (PCAR) rated new neutral: Susquehanna, PT $56
* Sanchez Energy (SN) buy: Canaccord, PT $31
* WCI Communities (WCIC) neutral: JPMorgan, PT $20.50
* WCI Communities (WCIC) outperform: FBR, PT $21
* Wesbanco (WSBC) market perform: FBR, PT $33

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

2013-08-20 Events

TOP NEWS:
* Hayman Capital Takes Stake in JCPenney: CNBC
* Kodak Pans to Formally Emerge from Bankruptcy on Sept. 3
* Barnes & Noble Holder Riggio Won’t Make Offer for Retail Unit
* Ally Financial Plans $1b Private Placement, Buyback
Glencore Says Rio Tinto Australia Coal JV Is a ‘Potential Idea’

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- CEO Ivan Glasenberg comments on
conference call after co.’s earnings.
* Co. hopes to complete Las Bambas sale by year end
* NOTE: Glencore Said to Study Combining Australian Coal
Assets With Rio
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UPGRADES:
* Ann Taylor (ANN) to buy: Janney
  * Cash America (CSH) to buy: Janney
* Chipotle (CMG) to hold: Jefferies
* Red Robin (RRGB) to buy: Jefferies
* Spirit Airlines (SAVE) to outperform: Raymond James
* Urban Outfitters (URBN) to outperform: Wedbush
  * Weyerhaeuser (WY) to buy: Longbow

DOWNGRADES:
* Arcelormittal (MT) to underweight: Morgan Stanley
* Bravo Brio (BBRG) to hold: Jefferies
* Cliffs Nautral (CLF) to hold: BB&T
* Diamond Offshore (DO) to neutral: UBS
* Edwards Group (EVAC) to neutral: Piper Jaffray
* Ensco (ESV) to neutral: UBS
* GTX Inc. (GTXI) to neutral: Lazard
* Lightinthebox (LITB) to underperform: Credit Suisse
* Noble Corp. (NE) to neutral: UBS
* Panera (PNRA) to hold: Jefferies
* Riverbed Tech (RVBD) to sell: Deutsche Bank
* Royal Gold (RGLD) to hold: BB&T
* Target (TGT) to neutral: Susquehanna
  * Teck Resources (TCK) to hold: BB&T
* Transocean (RIG) to neutral: UBS
* Wal-Mart (WMT) to neutral: Susquehanna
* Xcel Energy (XEL) to underweight: JPMorgan

INITIATIONS:
* Anadarko (APC) buy: Canaccord, PT $115
* Apache (APA) buy: Canaccord, PT $106
* Ares Capital (ARCC) buy: Sterne Agee, PT $19
* Bloomin Brands (BLMN) overweight: Barclays, PT $29
* Bridge Bancorp (BDGE) buy: Guggenheim, PT $25
* Cabot Oil (COG) buy: Canaccord, PT $45
* Central European Media (CETV) buy: Wood & Co., PT $7
* Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) hold: Stifel
* Devon Energy (DVN) buy: Canaccord, PT $75
* Facebook (FB) buy: Janney, PT $50
* John Bean Tech (JBT) speculative buy: Global Hunter, PT $31
* Laclede (LG) overweight: JPMorgan, PT $50
* Marlin Midstream (FISH) outperform: Robert Baird, PT $23
* Pandora Media (P) buy: B. Riley, PT $26
* Pioneer Natural (PXD) buy: Canaccord, PT $220
* QEP Resources (QEP) hold: Canaccord, PT $31
  * Qihoo 360 (QIHU) neutral: Goldman
* Range Resources (RRC) buy: Canaccord, PT $93
* Salesforce.com (CRM) overweight: First Analysis, PT $55
* Southwestern Energy (SWN) buy: Canaccord, PT $50
* Ultra Petroleum (UPL) hold: Canaccord, PT $22
* Unit Corp. (UNT) hold: Canaccord, PT $49
* Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) buy: Guggenheim, PT $38
* Zynga (ZNGA) sell: Janney, PT $2.50

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Favorite Market Quotes

These are some of my favorite quotes regarding the market and investing...

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine."
~ Benjamin Graham

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."
~ Benjamin Graham

"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."
~ Oscar Wilde

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."
~ Sir John Templeton

"Fish see the bait, but not the hook; men see the profit, but not the peril."
~ Chinese Proverb

"If we knew what it is we were doing it would not be called research, would it?"
~ Albert Einstein

Friday, August 16, 2013

Bond Markets in Europe

Interesting development in the European bond markets this week. The yields of Germany and France, typically thought of as the "safer" countries, saw their 10Y yields rise. Lower grade bonds of Italy, Spain, and Portugal saw their 10Y yields fall.

Bullish interpretation:
The surprise GDP growth of Q2 has led investors to believe that the recession in Europe is over and spreads on the peripheral countries relative to France and Germany should come down.

Bearish interpretation:
The bond market is becoming concerned on a global basis and starting to demand higher risk premium.

My take is that you should be cautious going into the end of the year. Seeing bonds yields rise in the most liquid markets should lead to a correction in equity markets. The fact that bond investors are no longer going to be able to sell their bonds to central banks means that pricing should start to normalize and this risk should be reflected in bond yields.

2013-08-16 Events

ECONOMY:
* 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 2Q prelim est 0.6%
* 8:30am: Housing Starts, July, est. 900k (prior 836k)
* 9:55am: UMich Consumer Sentiment, Aug. prelim., est. 85.2
* 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b debt in 2020-2023 sector
* 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
EQUITY PREVIEW:
* Applied Materials (AMAT): 3Q sales miss; Dickerson named CEO
* Aspen Technology (AZPN): 1Q adj. EPS view above est.
* Bally Technologies (BYI): 4Q rev. beat est.
* Dell (DELL): 2Q net fell 72%; adj. EPS beat est. by 1c
* First Marblehead (FMD): IRS proposes $300m adjustment
* Jos A Bank Clothiers (JOSB): 2Q prelim. EPS trails est.
* Mandalay Digital (MNDL): Secondary via Ladenburg Thalmann
* Nordstrom (JWN): Cuts yr EPS, comp. sales forecasts
* Pixelworks (PXLW): Secondary via Roth Capital
* PowerSecure International (POWR): $44m secondary
* Universal Truckload Services (UACL): 1m-shr secondary
UPGRADES:
* Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to strong buy: ISI Group
  * Linear Technology (LLTC) to overweight: Morgan Stanley
* JetBlue (JBLU) to market perform: Raymond James
* Pandora Media (P) to buy: Goldman Sachs
  * Xilinx (XLNX) to overweight: Morgan Stanley

DOWNGRADES:
* Alcoa (AA) to underperform: BofA Merrill
* Aviva (AV) to neutral: BNP Paribas
* General Mills (GIS) to underperform: Jefferies
* Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) to equalweight: Morgan Stanely
* Noble Energy (NBL) to buy: ISI Group
* Nordstrom (JWN) to neutral: Sterne Agee
* Portugal Telecom (PT) to neutral: Goldman Sachs
* Portugal Telecom (PT) to neutral: Natixis
* Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) to neutral: B. Riley
* STMicroelectronics (STM) to underweight: HSBC
* Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) to sell: B. Riley
* Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) to hold: Deutsche Bank
* Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) to hold: Needham

INITIATIONS:
* Aercap (AER) outperform: RBC Capital, PT $28
* Aircastle (AYR) sector perform: RBC Capital, PT $20
* Atmel (ATML) overweight: Morgan Stanley, PT $10
* Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) overweight: Morgan Stanley, PT $16
* Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) underweight: Morgan Stanley, PT $14
* Fly Leasing (FLY) outperform: RBC Capital, PT $18
* Glu Mobile (GLUU) hold: Benchmark Co., PT $2.42
* Movado Group (MOV) buy: Brean Capital, PT $44
* Microchip Technology (MCHP) equalweight: Morgan Stanley, PT $43
* ON Semiconductor (ONNN) underweight: Morgan Stanley, PT $7
* Semtech (SMTC) outperform: RBC Capital, PT $40
  * Tronox (TROX) outperform: RBC Capital, PT $28

Thursday, August 15, 2013

13-F Roundup