Low estimate is 0.7% and high estimate is 1.9%. Given that this is the first estimate for 2Q, I'd say it'll come in right at 1.4%, with a caveat being the high likelihood of a revision down on the next release. The US 10 year yield is guiding for slowing growth. If we do print a 1.4% growth rate, then we are facing a declining growth rate for the first time in a year and there will be more chatter about a recession...dare I say double dip.
We are facing the most significant deleveraging since the 1930s. The policy prescription thus far has been to re-lever the system. Extend and pretend, delay and pray, etc...no matter how you want to describe it, we have to let market forces function. The more artificial stimulus (the biggest being central bankers) that is provided, the longer it'll take for the market to clear.
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| Source: Bloomberg |