From Business Insider
The S&P Is At New Highs, Shanghai Is At New Lows — Jeff Gundlach Explains What's Going On
The Shanghai Composite is basically at post-crisis lows, while the S&P 500 is basically at post-crisis highs.
The S&P vs. the Shanghai Composite is a chart that fund manager Jeff Gundlach is fond of observing, so we asked him his take on what's going on.
He writes:
Strength is SPX and other "developed" stock markets reflects sentiment improvement regarding Europe versus the abject doom and gloom depths of late May/early June.
Weakness in SHCOMP reflects concern over slowing growth in China compounded by higher food and energy prices since late May/early June.
Since June 1 global "developed" stock market lows:
SPX price up 11.1%
SHCOMP price down 10.8%
IBEX price up 24.4%
Weakness in SHCOMP reflects concern over slowing growth in China compounded by higher food and energy prices since late May/early June.
Since June 1 global "developed" stock market lows:
SPX price up 11.1%
SHCOMP price down 10.8%
IBEX price up 24.4%
The slow growth in China is much talked about, but the extra squeeze from high food prices is probably a bit less appreciated. Rich countries can handle a food price spike much more easily.
As a followup, we asked Gundlach if he thinks this divergence can last much longer
I doubt it. Thus short SPX long SHCOMP could be an interesting speculation. Probably a better trade today than the short SPX/long IBEX trade that has worked well since I recommended it at Ira Sohn (up 8.3% on the pair trade).